Presidential run-off race polarises Egypt

 Most of those in Shubra said they would vote for Ahmed Shafiq

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Egypt votes

Death of the revolution?

‘Collision course’

Islamist optimism

Uncertain future

Several men placed newspapers on their heads to shelter themselves from the harsh sun as they waited outside a polling station at a school in Shubra, northern Cairo.

The front-page headline of the privately owned al-Misri al-Yawm, read: “Egypt chooses a president today with no constitution or parliament.”

Decisions by the Supreme Constitutional Court on Thursday resulted in the dissolution of parliament and added to confusion over the process for drawing up a new constitution that will define the next president’s powers.

Yet voters in this large working-class district – unusual because Coptic Christians slightly outnumber Muslims – said they did not hesitate to come and cast their ballots.

While there were a few posters for the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate, Mohammed Mursi, nearby, everyone who I spoke to was pleased that the latest judicial rulings also upheld the right of the former Prime Minister, Ahmed Shafiq, to continue in the presidential race.

He was seen as a bulwark against a rising Islamist tide.

Polarised

“Shafiq is the liberal. I don’t want a religious president. It’s bad for Egypt,” said a young man, Michael, who voted early on Saturday.

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Ahmed Shafiq

Aged 70

Veteran fighter pilot and former air force chief

Appointed Egypt’s first aviation minister, earning reputation for competence and efficiency

Promoted to PM during February 2011 protests

Associated with Mubarak regime, though denies being backed by ruling military council

Campaigned on a promise to restore security

Profile: Ahmed Shafiq

Guide to presidential election

Presidential candidates in quotes

“We want security and a modern country,” added another Christian and Shafiq supporter, Magdi Munir.

Despite criticisms of the ex-military man, he believed Mr Shafiq would preserve personal freedoms.

“I think Shafiq will keep his promises because he saw what happened to [the ousted President, Hosni] Mubarak,” he commented.

Mohammed Abu Zaid agreed that Mr Shafiq was the best guarantor of “stability and a civil state”.

He bought his argument that the Muslim Brotherhood was “reactionary” and would send Egypt back to “the dark ages”.

“I’m a Muslim but I have many Christian friends. We leave our house keys with each other. This is the history of Shubra: we live in partnership and love. We want that to continue,” Mr Abu Zaid said poetically.

The run-off for this presidential race has polarised the country, dividing those who want to keep religion out of politics from those who fear a return to the old regime.

Debate

In the poor district of Imbaba, the debate continued on the pavement outside the polling station.

Hilal Mohammed believes Mohammed Mursi would respect the will of the people

As a voter wearing an Egypt pin praised Mr Shafiq’s political experience and “leadership qualities”, a tuk-tuk, or motorised rickshaw, zig-zagged past with its occupants leaning out shouting “Mursi, Mursi”.

A crowd quickly assembled to discuss the pros and cons of the two presidential hopefuls, who finished in first and second place out of 13 candidates in the first round of the vote.

“Dr Mursi is God-fearing man and will respect the will of the people,” said a bearded man, Hilal Mohammed.

“He has a scientific background. He studied in the US and can handle foreign relations. Moreover, he has an excellent agenda and the support of a group with a distinguished history.”

A veiled woman, Nashwa Radwan said she would be happy with a president with an “Islamic background” and sees Mr Mursi as representing a fresh start.

“I would never vote for someone from the old regime which was corrupt and killed my Egyptian brothers and sisters,” she declared.

Tough choice

The reference to last year’s popular uprising is a powerful one. Many locals had first-hand experience of the events across the Nile in Tahrir Square, during the bloodiest days of the revolt.

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Mohammed Mursi

Aged 60

US-educated engineering professor

Head of Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP)

Served as independent MP 2000-05

Quietly spoken, viewed by some as lacking charisma

Has promised “stability, security, justice and prosperity” under an Islamic banner

Profile: Mohammed Mursi

Q&A: Supreme Court rulings

“I was there, I saw people die in front of my eyes. I reject the ‘faloul’” said Talaat Hassanin, using a phrase referring to remnants’ of the old regime.

His friend, Mohammed Hussain, lifted his shirt to reveal a bullet wound scar.

“On 28 January I was working as a nurse in a field hospital. When I left to go home, I got shot in the back. I’ll never forget the old regime’s acts against peaceful protesters,” he told me.

Egypt’s revolutionaries arguably face the toughest choice in this election.

They helped the leftist, Hamdeen Sabahi, win the vote in the two biggest cities, Cairo and Alexandria, in last month’s presidential election first round.

The independent Islamist candidate, Abdul Moneim Aboul Fotouh, who also backed the 2011 revolt, and the former Arab League secretary general, Amr Moussa, finished behind Mr Sabahi in fourth and fifth place respectively.

Boycott

Sharif Hassan, a young engineer, from the Nile island of Manial, said he had “conscience problems” but was voting for Mr Shafiq because of concerns about the Muslim Brotherhood’s intentions.

Many young Egyptians seemed disenchanted and reluctant to vote

“I joined the revolution for the full 18 days, I have hard-core pro-revolutionary friends but now I will vote for the anti-revolutionary candidate,” he said.

In Nasser City, Ahmed Mustafa had concluded that his efforts to produce political change over the past 18 months had been in vain.

He was one of many Egyptians who are not likely to head to the polls even though the ruling military has declared two days of national holiday to bring out the vote.

Mr Mustafa planned to spend his time performing mundane tasks, servicing his car and heading to the shops.

“I am treating this like any other day off. I don’t want to vote for a religious country governed by the Supreme Guide of the Muslim Brotherhood or a military state headed by an ex-air force commander,” he explained.

“We have two bad choices and an unclear future. We aspired to have a real democracy and a civil country and we failed.”

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Why the War of 1812 still matters

Alexandra Deutsch, from the Maryland Historical Society, tells the BBC how America got its national anthem

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War of 1812: Violence, glory and Canadian-ness

On the bicentennial of America’s declaration of war against the United Kingdom, the BBC’s Joan Soley says the War of 1812 still resonates today.

If someone stopped you on the street at this exact moment and asked you to explain what the War of 1812 was about, could you explain?

You would not be alone if you couldn’t. When asked, my father said: “I have a hunch it involved men in red coats, American Indians and Daniel Day-Lewis.” (He had two out of three.)

While generally being relegated to history books and classrooms, the War of 1812, also known as America’s second war for independence, was important – and it still matters.

An audacious declaration

Two hundred years ago this Monday, American President James Madison signed a declaration of war against Great Britain.

The first time the United States had declared war against another nation, it was not an action that enjoyed unanimous support in Congress.

Enthusiasts in Maryland reenact a skirmish from the War of 1812

The reasons for war included the British habit of forcing American merchant sailors into the Royal Navy, as well as trade restrictions on the US as a side-effect of Britain’s seemingly endless war with France. Another factor was British support for Native Americans as they fought against the US government’s westward expansion.

In short, the United States had had enough of British meddling in North America – and for the young nation, national pride was at stake.

So the US went to war, and over the course of the two-and-a-half-year conflict, they fought Canadian colonists, Native American tribes, and the British – an audacious move against the world’s largest navy at the time.

From a US perspective, what made the war “important” is readily visible today.

Internally, the American national anthem and flag got their beginnings from the attack on Fort McHenry during the Battle of Baltimore in 1814.

Externally, the mutually beneficial “special relationship” that has grown between Great Britain and the United States since that period developed in the aftermath of the war that pitted those nations against one another.

Star-spangled story

The Battle of Baltimore stands out as a turning point during the War of 1812. Weeks before the attack, the British had burned most of the buildings in Washington, DC – including the White House and the Capitol building.

At Fort McHenry, a few miles to the north, about 1,000 soldiers under the command of Major George Armistead prepared for a British naval attack.

As part of their preparation, they sank some of their own merchant ships near Baltimore Harbour to limit the sailing abilities of their attackers. Once underway, the British naval attack on the fort lasted 25 hours.

But the fort held.

This was an enormous accomplishment, as Alexandra Deutsch from the Maryland Historical Society told me this past week.

Not only was it a crucial military victory, it also helped develop an American anthem: the flag above the fort inspired a lawyer by the name of Francis Scott Key to write a poem in tribute. Set to the tune of an old drinking song, his words became an anthem – The Star-Spangled Banner.

In Baltimore, the War of 1812 still has a special meaning. This year, international ships travelled to the city’s port as part of an event called the “Sailabration”, which marked Baltimore’s place in the war.

During the singing of the national anthem, Martha, an 82-year-old from outside of Baltimore, was visibly moved.

“I feel it every time. I have lived here all my life and I am proud of where I’m from,” she says.

“When I see the news and think about everything I’ve seen in my lifetime, the world is so complicated. But I’m part of something big and bold, and we may not always agree but we are all Americans.”

Friendship forged in fire

Speaking volumes about the modern relationship between the US and Great Britain, Prime Minister David Cameron and his wife made their first official foreign trip this year in March, and it was to the United States.

As President Barack Obama joked during his public welcoming remarks: “It’s now been 200 years since the British came here to the White House under somewhat different circumstances. They made quite an impression, they really lit up the place!”

Jokes aside, the two countries have come a long way from the War of 1812. Even after the conflict ended, tensions continued between the two nations in the 19th Century, but by the 20th Century they had established a valuable partnership of trust and support.

From the occupation of Europe during World War II to today in Afghanistan, Great Britain and the US tend to globally present a united front.

As Martha from Baltimore said as she watched the anniversary “Sailabration”, the world is complicated. Simply put, the importance of

Egypt: Death of the Tahrir Square revolution?

The hopes of Egypt’s revolutionaries now lie in tatters.

Far from being the climax of the country’s transition to democracy, the presidential elections which ended on Sunday mark one more stage in the struggle against a ruling military council determined to dominate the political game.

Barely had the polling stations closed when the military issued a proclamation which made a mockery of the democratic process.

Real power will lie not with the elected president or the elected parliament, but with an unelected military elite.

Gamble

This represents a significant challenge both to the popular forces in Egypt and to the Obama administration in Washington.

Supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Mursi are adamant he has won the election

The generals may well be gambling that, after 16 months of political turbulence, Egyptians are now exhausted and disillusioned.

It is certainly true that a lot of Egyptians yearn for stability, the restoration of law and order, and the revival of their battered economy.

But the gamble may not pay off. There is a real risk of fresh confrontation.

The Muslim Brotherhood believes its candidate, Mohammed Mursi, won the election fair and square. It has made it clear it will not remain passive in the face of what it calls the military’s “coup”.

But its leaders are habitually cautious. They will have to decide if their interests are best served by an all-out confrontation with the military, or by some sort of accommodation.

If the generals are smart and accept a Mursi victory, the second option would be more palatable.

Should the generals try to deny victory to the Islamists, all bets are off.

Obama’s choice

For its part, the Obama administration’s very public commitment to Egyptian democracy is now being put to the test.

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Interim Constitutional Declaration

• Issued by ruling Supreme Council of Armed Forces (Scaf)
• Amends Constitutional Declaration of March 2011
• Grants Scaf powers to initiate legislation, control budget, appoint panel to draft new constitution
• Postpones new parliamentary elections until new constitution is approved

• Regional impact of declaration

The state department has said it is “deeply concerned” at the military’s actions, warning that decisions taken now will have an impact on the US-Egyptian relationship.

But the Egyptian generals may well feel the stakes are so high that vague threats from Washington can be brushed off.

The demise of Egypt’s revolution would be a serious blow to the Arab Spring but would not by itself signal its death knell.

Despite the setbacks in Egypt, Syria and elsewhere, the regional drama is far from over. The forces of the old order are fighting back – as was to be expected – but their victory is not assured.

A prolonged struggle lies ahead, as revolutionaries and reactionaries settle in for a long-term battle for the region’s future.

Roger Hardy is the author of The Muslim Revolt: A Journey through Political Islam (2010) and is currently a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics.